VanQuest Insights

Insights

Practical analysis on cash flow, liquidity, and financial strategy for companies in transition — and the lenders, boards, and advisors who back them.

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The late payments were always in your invoice history, buried among hundreds of others. A rolling 13-week cash flow forecast is your early warning system.

A closed loop: the AI trade attracts foreign inflows that prop up the dollar, which crushes the yen, which forces Japan to intervene, which would normally mean selling Treasurys, which lifts the 30-year yield to 5.3 percent, the rate that discounts the AI trade
Macro & Credit

The One-Engine Economy

Three-quarters of first-quarter growth came from AI capital spending. That one engine is now wired, through the dollar and the yen, to the long-term interest rate that discounts it. One line on the Federal Reserve's weekly balance sheet tells you when the wire gets cut.

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The same 13-week forecast has different standing depending on when it was started: built the month a lender asks it has no variance history, built six months earlier it arrives with about 26 weeks of delivered forecast versus actual
Restructuring & Credit

Start the 13-Week Before You Need It

Every cash collateral and DIP financing order runs on a 13-week budget. It is the one financial artifact whose value depends on when you started it — which is why it belongs in place long before a lender ever asks.

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Every other landed-cost component carries about 40 days of payment terms. Duty carries zero, locking up 1.66 million dollars of structural working capital across a 120-day cash conversion cycle
Trade & Working Capital

The Tariff Line Nobody Gives You Terms On

Every other cost in your landed-cost stack comes with payment terms. Duty doesn't. That zero-day term quietly compresses your blended payables and locks up working capital a monthly forecast never catches.

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Over two years EBITDA rose 27% a year while cash flow from operations rose 8%, and the share of each EBITDA dollar surviving as operating cash fell from 33 cents to 21 cents
Credit & Liquidity

When EBITDA Stops Becoming Cash

Across more than 2,400 middle-market borrowers, EBITDA grew at a 27% compound annual rate over two years while cash flow from operations grew 8%. If you lend on a cash-flow basis, neither leverage nor fixed charge coverage will show you that.

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More pieces on liquidity, restructuring, and CFO strategy are on the way.

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